2.1 · Sector Forests
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
The sector overview shows that Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries operate within a deeply interconnected risk environment in which environmental, economic and institutional pressures reinforce one another. …
Sector overview
The sector overview shows that Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries operate within a deeply interconnected risk environment in which environmental, economic and institutional pressures reinforce one another. Against this backdrop, the IRMSA Top 10 Risks below illustrate how national risk conditions translate into sector specific consequences for production, profitability, resilience and long-term viability across the AFF system.
p57— see this page in the report
Verdict
Taken together, these risks show that the AFF sector is exposed not only to direct production shocks, but also to a wider set of structural constraints that shape competitiveness, inclusion and long-term resilience. This broader perspective provides an appropriate bridge into the next section, which considers the sector’s strategic context through a combined SWOT and PESTLE lens.
Sector at a glance
- GDP contribution
- Around 2–3 percent nationally.
- Recent performance
- Among the fastest‑growing sectors in 2024–2025.
- Jobs
- Roughly 920 000–950 000 people employed in agriculture alone, above the long‑term average.
- Trade
- Over 3 billion US dollars in annual agricultural exports in strong years.
- Role
- Core to food security, rural livelihoods and upstream demand for inputs and logistics.
Priorities & outlook
Key priorities
- Strengthen climate, water and infrastructure resilience while improving coordination, inclusion and adaptive capacity across the value chain.
Economic outlook
The Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (AFF) sector has solid long-term importance and resilience potential, but near- to medium-term performance will depend on how well it manages climate, water, infrastructure and institutional risks.
IRMSA Top 10 impact
How the ten national risks land in this sector — AVE RANK 1 is the highest impact. Browse with the arrow keys; open a risk for its national profile.
Rank 1 · Climate change and climate resilience failure
Climate and yield volatility
Increasing climate variability, extreme weather and disrupted rainfall patterns undermine production assumptions, destabilise yields and weaken long‑term sector viability.
View as data table
| Rank | Risk | Impact label | Impact narrative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Climate change and climate resilience failure | Climate and yield volatility | Increasing climate variability, extreme weather and disrupted rainfall patterns undermine production assumptions, destabilise yields and weaken long‑term sector viability. |
| 2 | Economic crisis, macroeconomic weakness and a non-competitive economy | Profitability and investment squeeze | Persistently low growth and high costs raise input prices, compress margins and limit the sector’s ability to invest in productivity and resilience. |
| 3 | Critical infrastructure and capacitated infrastructure failure | Market access and cost pressure | Failing transport, storage, irrigation and digital infrastructure raise logistics costs, increase post‑harvest losses and restrict access to markets, especially for smaller producers. |
| 4 | Electricity, energy and national grid failure | Energy‑driven disruption and competitiveness risk | Unreliable and costly energy disrupts irrigation, cold chains and processing, increasing capital intensity and disadvantaging smaller operators. |
| 5 | Governance and leadership failure, state incapacity and institutional breakdown | Systemic risk amplification | Weak governance in water, infrastructure, energy, land and rural security shifts resilience costs to producers and heightens uncertainty around regulation and service delivery. |
| 6 | Water scarcity and water crises | Binding production constraint | Persistent water stress from drought, failing infrastructure and competing demand limits irrigated output, threatens food security and undermines long‑term investment confidence. |
| 7 | Cyber risk and digital disruption | Digital disruption and non‑adoption risk | Greater reliance on digital tools creates exposure to cyber incidents, while weak digital capability limits efficiency, optimisation and resilience gains. |
| 8 | Systemic corruption, fraud, unethical conduct and organised crime | Security costs and investment deterrent | Corruption and crime drive direct losses, increase security costs, erode trust in value chains and weaken the overall investment climate. |
| 9 | Political instability and constrained cohesive politics | Policy uncertainty and capital access risk | Unstable and fragmented politics heighten policy uncertainty, raise investor risk premiums and slow investment in resilient production systems and infrastructure. |
| 10 | Unemployment, income disparity, inequality and lack of social cohesion | Social tension and labour‑market misalignment | High unemployment and inequality strain rural communities and labour relations, while rising skill demands outpace education and labour‑market adjustment, weakening adaptive capacity. |
Risks, controls & opportunities
The chapter's ten sector-specific risks with their typical control and the opportunity each unlocks.
Ranked risks
| Rank | Risk |
|---|---|
| 1 | Climate variability threatens agricultural productivity and livelihoods. |
| 2 | Land degradation reduces productivity and ecosystem resilience. |
| 3 | Market volatility undermines farm income and investment stability. |
| 4 | Pests and diseases threaten agricultural and ecosystem health. |
| 5 | Ageing infrastructure limits agricultural efficiency and competitiveness. |
| 6 | Governance gaps weaken coordination and policy implementation. |
| 7 | Energy insecurity disrupts farming and processing activities. |
| 8 | Water scarcity threatens agriculture and competing demands. |
| 9 | Food safety risks threaten market access and exports. |
| 10 | Limited access constrains smallholder farmer participation. |
Detail
Select a risk in the table to see its typical control and the opportunity it unlocks.
View full table (controls & opportunities)
| Rank | Risk | Control | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Climate variability threatens agricultural productivity and livelihoods. | Climate adaptation plans and early warning systems implemented. | Scale climate-smart agriculture and access green finance. |
| 2 | Land degradation reduces productivity and ecosystem resilience. | Sustainable land use regulations and conservation programmes enforced. | Restoration projects create jobs and improve productivity. |
| 3 | Market volatility undermines farm income and investment stability. | Insurance, market intelligence and trade support applied. | Diversify crops, markets and agro processing opportunities. |
| 4 | Pests and diseases threaten agricultural and ecosystem health. | Surveillance, biosecurity and pest management systems strengthened. | Expand biosecurity and local biocontrol industries. |
| 5 | Ageing infrastructure limits agricultural efficiency and competitiveness. | Public investment and infrastructure partnerships implemented. | Develop agro industrial hubs and logistics networks. |
| 6 | Governance gaps weaken coordination and policy implementation. | Integrated planning frameworks and intergovernmental coordination applied. | Align sectors to unlock synergies and co- benefits. |
| 7 | Energy insecurity disrupts farming and processing activities. | Backup systems and energy efficiency measures implemented. | Scale renewable energy and embedded generation solutions. |
| 8 | Water scarcity threatens agriculture and competing demands. | Water regulation and efficient irrigation systems implemented. | Invest in water saving technologies and storage systems. |
| 9 | Food safety risks threaten market access and exports. | Regulatory inspections and certification systems enforced. | Improve traceability and access premium export markets. |
| 10 | Limited access constrains smallholder farmer participation. | Finance, extension and market support programmes provided. | Develop inclusive finance and digital market platforms. |
Strategic context
Internal context — SWOT
⚠ SWOT analysis — the source PDF prints another chapter's copy here (flagged to IRMSA for correction).
The final report document reproduces Communication and Digital Economy content in this block; it is withheld pending correction at source.
p58— see this page in the report Verification status: Withheld — source issue
External context — PESTLE
⚠ PESTLE analysis — the source PDF prints another chapter's copy here (flagged to IRMSA for correction).
The final report document reproduces Communication and Digital Economy content in this block; it is withheld pending correction at source.
p59— see this page in the report Verification status: Withheld — source issue
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
UmphakathiVuka next steps
The preceding analysis suggests that AFF resilience must be built through coordinated action that links producers, communities, institutions and markets more effectively. Through the UmphakathiVuka lens, the following priorities translate sector risks and opportunities into practical next steps that emphasise inclusion, shared responsibility, foresight and implementation discipline.
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UmphakathiVuka agriculture, forestry and fisheries compact and governance
Establish a shared cross‑sector commitment that convenes producers, communities, government, business and civil society to agree on top systemic risks, resilience outcomes and collaboration principles, and to coordinate plans, joint forums and people‑centred governance across the sector.
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Climate, landscape, water and energy resilience in value chains
Protect production systems and ecosystems from climate, land degradation and water stress by scaling climate‑smart and regenerative practices, catchment partnerships, efficient irrigation, water harvesting, distributed renewable energy and energy‑resilient irrigation, cold chains, storage and processing.
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Inclusive rural and blue economies with solidarity value chains
Build resilient and inclusive livelihoods across farming, forestry and fisheries communities through targeted support for smallholders and fishers, wider market access, inclusive finance, sustainable aquaculture and blue‑economy opportunities, and shared‑risk, shared‑reward arrangements such as contract farming, aggregators and anchor‑support models.
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People‑first implementation, capability and foresight
Embed a people‑first approach so that vulnerable groups, food security, jobs and local safety nets are prioritised, supported by strengthened extension services, revitalised agricultural and fisheries colleges, research partnerships and the use of long‑term foresight and scenario planning to stress‑test resilience pathways.
-
Monitoring, learning, regional pilots and scorecards
Treat UmphakathiVuka as a practical implementation pathway by piloting integrated, community‑centred resilience programmes in high‑risk regions, tracking progress through a sector scorecard linked to risk registers and annual reporting, and using continuous learning to refine and scale successful models nationally.
These priorities indicate that UmphakathiVuka should be treated not as a separate initiative, but as a practical implementation pathway for turning AFF risk insights into coordinated resilience action. In this way, the sector can strengthen its contribution to food security, rural stability, ecological sustainability and inclusive economic development while improving its capacity to absorb and adapt to future shocks.
Sector vs national ranking
Each risk's national Top-10 wheel rank against its AVE RANK in this chapter's impact grid, sorted by the biggest shift. Rank 1 (left) is most severe. Select a row to pin it.
View as data table
| Theme | Risk as printed in the grid | National rank | Sector AVE RANK | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy | Electricity, energy and national grid failure | 10 | 4 | ▲ 6 more acute in sector |
| Climate | Climate change and climate resilience failure | 6 | 1 | ▲ 5 more acute in sector |
| Water | Water scarcity and water crises | 9 | 6 | ▲ 3 more acute in sector |
| Infrastructure | Critical infrastructure and capacitated infrastructure failure | 4 | 3 | ▲ 1 more acute in sector |
| Cyber | Cyber risk and digital disruption | 8 | 7 | ▲ 1 more acute in sector |
| Economic | Economic crisis, macroeconomic weakness and a non-competitive economy | 2 | 2 | same rank as national |
| Crime | Systemic corruption, fraud, unethical conduct and organised crime | 7 | 8 | ▼ 1 less acute in sector |
| Governance | Governance and leadership failure, state incapacity and institutional breakdown | 1 | 5 | ▼ 4 less acute in sector |
| Inequality | Unemployment, income disparity, inequality and lack of social cohesion | 5 | 10 | ▼ 5 less acute in sector |
| Political | Political instability and constrained cohesive politics | 3 | 9 | ▼ 6 less acute in sector |
Positions from this chapter's Top 10 impact grid (p57) and the national Top 10 wheel.