Edition 2026/27
12th Edition
IRMSA Risk Report 2026/27
Southern Africa stands at a pivotal moment in which the risks it faces, and the choices it makes in response will shape the region’s environmental, social, economic and governance landscape for decades to come.
Executive summary
Southern Africa stands at a pivotal moment in which the risks it faces, and the choices it makes in response will shape the region’s environmental, social, economic and governance landscape for decades to come. The IRMSA Risk Report provides a clear, practical picture of Southern Africa’s evolving risk landscape, enabling boards, executives, practitioners, and public leaders to make better decisions, build resilience and protect long-term value. It is not just a list of risks, but a call to action to confront systemic weaknesses and work together towards a more inclusive and resilient future.
At the core of the 2026/2027 report is the insight that Southern Africa’s top risks now form a deeply interconnected meta crisis rooted in structural issues. Governance failures, economic fragility, infrastructure stress, social inequality, climate pressures, crime, cyber risk, water stress and energy insecurity reinforce one another and shape daily realities across sectors and regions. By bringing practitioner insight, data and trends into a single shared view, the report helps decision makers align on the most material threats, opportunities and trade-offs.
Southern Africa stands at a pivotal moment in which the risks it faces, and the choices it makes in response will shape the region’s environmental, social, economic and governance landscape for decades to come.
The 2026/27 theme
UmphakathiVuka — Awakening the Forest
Umphakathi in the Nguni languages means “the community” or “the people”, while Vuka means “to rise” or “to awaken”. Together, UmphakathiVuka expresses the idea of a people first community rising together in shared humanity, with an awakened, long-range vision for a just future. It brings together three powerful traditions: Ubuntu (our shared humanity), Batho Pele (putting people first) and Indlulamithi (seeing above the trees to shape a fair and sustainable tomorrow).
IRMSA further extends the UmphakathiVuka theme to position Southern Africa’s risk landscape as a living forest, made up of many different trees, i.e. organisations, sectors, communities and institutions. Each shaped by its own context, yet deeply dependent on the health of the whole ecosystem. By using this metaphor, the report aims to make complex systemic risks more tangible and accessible for decision makers.
In practice, “Awakening the Forest” calls on leaders to move beyond compliance driven risk management towards a more proactive, collaborative and community centred approach. It encourages organisations to recognise early signals of stress in their own “trees”, understand how their decisions impact neighbouring “trees”, and contribute deliberately to rebuilding trust, capacity and resilience within the broader forest. Throughout the report, we reference this theme to connect data and analysis to the lived realities of people, organisations and communities.
The Top 10 Risks
How each risk becomes an opportunity →- Governance and leadership failure, state incapacity and institutional breakdown Failures of governance and leadership across state institutions and State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), weak accountability and oversight, governance breakdowns in public and private sectors and an increasingly incapable or failed state unable to perform basic functions and protect rights. Rank 1, Governance theme
- Economic crisis, macroeconomic weakness and a non-competitive economy Fiscal crises, macroeconomic headwinds, economic slowdown or recession, risk of complete economic collapse and a low growth, high cost, less competitive economy unable to generate inclusive growth. Rank 2, Economic theme
- Political instability and constrained cohesive politics Profound political and social instability, national political uncertainty, unmanageable societal unrest, and, more recently, fragmented, coalition driven and geopolitically exposed politics are constraining coherent direction and reforms. Rank 3, Political theme
- Critical infrastructure and capacitated infrastructure failure Failure or shortfall of critical infrastructure (energy, water, transport, ICT), systemic failure of public infrastructure, and under capacitated infrastructure that cannot reliably support citizens or the economy. Rank 4, Infrastructure theme
- Unemployment, income disparity, inequality and lack of social cohesion Persistently high structural unemployment and underemployment, especially among the youth, combined with employment and livelihood crises, deepening poverty and limited small business ecosystem, are driving social instability and slowing growth. Rank 5, Inequality theme
- Climate change and climate resilience failure Extreme weather events, droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa and broader impacts of climate change and climate action failure, alongside inadequate adaptation and context relevant climate resilience. Rank 6, Climate theme
- Systemic corruption, fraud, unethical conduct and organised crime eroding the rule of law, safety and security Systemic corruption, fraud, and organised crime that erode the rule of law, undermine institutions, weaken delivery, and drive instability and declining confidence. Rank 7, Crime theme
- Cyber risk and digital disruption Escalation in large scale cyber-attacks, interruption of digitally enabled services, and activity leading to cyber risks and data fraud/theft. Rank 8, Cyber theme
- Water scarcity and water crises Water crises driven by droughts, structural scarcity, failing water infrastructure and poor management, impacting growth, agriculture, public health and stability. Rank 9, Water theme
- Electricity, energy and national grid failure Insufficient or unreliable electricity and energy supply, deepening Eskom constraints and risk of national grid failure, threatening growth, jobs, safety and investment. Rank 10, Energy theme
Voices of the edition
Opening words from the report's forewords and the message from the IRMSA CEO.
South Africa enters the 2026/27 period confronting a risk landscape defined by complexity, uncertainty and deep interdependence.
Southern Africa’s risk landscape, as is the case globally, is becoming more complex, more interconnected and more consequential.
Southern Africa stands at a pivotal moment, with today’s choices set to shape the region’s environmental, social, economic and governance trajectory for years to come.
This year’s IRMSA Risk Report offers an integrated view of the shifting forces that will shape South Africa’s economic, social, political and environmental trajectory in the years ahead.